Oil Prices Up on Record Demand, But IEA Warns of OPEC+ Output Cuts Impact on Consumers and Supply Deficit.

Oil Prices Up on Record Demand, But IEA Warns of OPEC+ Output Cuts Impact on Consumers and Supply Deficit.

 


Oil prices increased on Friday, marking a

fourth consecutive week of gains following a

report by the International Energy Agency

(IEA), which stated that global demand for oil

will reach a record high this year, primarily

driven by a recovery in Chinese consumption.

Brent crude futures rose 22 cents, settling at

$86.31 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate

crude futures gained 36 cents, settling at

$82.52 a barrel. Both contracts experienced

gains of 1.5% and 2.4%, respectively, for the

week, which is the longest such streak since

June 2022.


While the IEA report is optimistic about the

global oil demand growth of 2 million barrels

per day (bpd) to reach 101.9 million bpd, it

warned that the deep output cuts announced

by the Organization of the Petroleum

Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other

producers led by Russia could exacerbate the

oil supply deficit and harm consumers. OPEC

flagged downside risks to summer oil demand,

and its decision to cut output by a further 1.16

million bpd could potentially impact

consumers and hinder global economic

recovery, according to the IEA.


Moreover, the IEA stated that it expected a fall

in global oil supply by 400,000 bpd by the end

of the year due to an expected increase in

production of 1 million bpd from outside of

OPEC+ beginning in March, compared to a 1.4

million bpd decline from the producer bloc.

The U.S. oil and gas rig count also fell for the

third consecutive week, indicating future

supply, according to Baker Hughes data. U.S.

oil rigs declined by two to 588 this week, their

lowest since June 2022, while gas rigs fell by

one to 157.


The U.S. dollar index was trading at roughly

a one-year low, which was due to the U.S.

consumer and producer price data releases

that raised expectations that the Fed was

approaching the end of its rate-hiking cycle.

Despite this, the greenback edged up on

Friday, causing dollar-denominated oil to

become more expensive for investors holding

other currencies, limiting the growth of oil

prices. In conclusion, the oil market remains

buoyed by the narrative of rising demand and

relative supply tightness, according to John

Kilduff, Partner at Again Capital LLC.