According to Brad McMillan, the Chief
Investment Officer of Commonwealth
Financial Network, fears of a collapse of the
US dollar are unfounded. He believes that the
greenback cannot be replaced anytime soon,
and a lot of the talk about its collapse comes
from doomsayers trying to push gold.
McMillan argued that as long as the US
remains the largest open trading economy,
with everyone in the world wanting access to
it, and as long as it is a great inconvenience to
switch to another currency, the position of
the dollar as the global reserve currency is
secure.
In his view, there are three key factors that
work in favor of the dollar: the size of the US
economy, the freely convertible nature of the
dollar, and the relative political and
economic stability of the US compared to
Europe and China. He believes that when you
look at all the pieces, the US dollar is not only
the established choice and, in most cases, the
smart choice, but it is the only choice, and
there is really no alternative.
McMillan pointed out that even China, which
has been trying to elevate the yuan to
challenge the dollar, still holds more than a
trillion dollars of US assets. He also argued
that de-dollarization concerns have been
rising, but the dollar is not collapsing, and is
trading at about the same level against other
currencies as it has been for the past several
decades.
Some countries have introduced non-dollar
trading arrangements, but McMillan is not
worried about the dollar's ups and downs. He
said, "As far as the markets are concerned,
the dollar is still where it has always been. If
we consider the markets as a warning system,
they are still flashing green. When they start
to turn yellow or red, then will be the time to
worry—but that is not what we are seeing."
Overall, McMillan believes that the US dollar
is not only the established choice, but it is also
the smart choice, and in most cases, it is the
only choice. Therefore, fears that the US
dollar will crash are completely overblown as
the greenback cannot be replaced anytime
soon.
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