Navigating Uncertainty: TSMC Forecasts Slump in Demand for High-Tech Chips Amid Economic Turmoil.

Navigating Uncertainty: TSMC Forecasts Slump in Demand for High-Tech Chips Amid Economic Turmoil.

 


Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.

(TSMC) has issued a weaker-than-expected

revenue forecast for the current quarter, as

demand for smartphones and server chips

continues to slump. The company, which is

Apple Inc.'s main chipmaker, is warning that

demand from the mobile and PC industries is

likely to remain soft for now. Despite this,

TSMC is sticking to its earlier plans to spend

up to $36bn on upgrading and expanding

capacity in 2023. The mixed outlook reflects

the uncertainty that TSMC and the industry as

a whole are facing regarding electronics

demand in 2023 and beyond. Consumers and

corporations are tightening their budgets due

to soaring inflation and the potential for a

global recession.


TSMC is projecting sales of $15.2bn to $16bn

this quarter, just below the $16.1bn average

projection of analysts. The company is

projecting gross margins of 52% to 54%, which

is generally in line with the 52.5% average

estimate. TSMC's CEO, C. C. Wei, told analysts

that the company is currently passing through

the bottom of its business cycle in the second

quarter. However, the PC and smartphone

markets "continue to be soft at the present

time."


One of the big questions that TSMC and its

peers are facing is the extent of the global tech

slump and whether China's economy will

bounce back strongly after dropping Covid

Zero controls. TSMC is expecting a low- to

mid-single-digit revenue decline in 2023,

which is in line with estimates.


Despite the uncertainty, investors remain

hopeful that TSMC's leading technology can

drive growth, particularly in the surge in

artificial intelligence development and

applications. This power demand for high-end

computing chips and datacenters required for

training and hosting AI models. The boom in

development since OpenAI's ChatGPT

demonstrated the technology's potential is

driving sales of high-end chips, which is in

turn helping to reduce the enormous stocks of

chips that customers have held since the Covid

era. The buildup in inventory had been larger

than expected coming out of late 2022,

according to TSMC executives.


TSMC's market leadership has likely helped to

buoy its margins. On Wednesday, fellow

industry bellwether ASML Holding NV, the

largest producer of equipment essential to

advanced chipmaking, forecast better-than-

anticipated June quarter revenue. However,

net bookings, a barometer for future growth,

plunged 46% from a year earlier. Another

equipment supplier to TSMC, Lam Research

Corp., also forecast adjusted earnings per

share that missed the average analyst estimate.


In the longer term, TSMC's leading technology

may be able to galvanize growth, particularly

as the demand for high-end computing chips

and datacenters required for AI models

continues to rise. The company's ramp-up in 3-

nanometer node production, AI, and server-

related high-performance-chip (HPC)

fabrication orders will be key areas of focus in

the 1Q conference call following a

disappointing 15.4% decline in March sales.

These factors will determine whether the

company can maintain revenue-growth

momentum in 2023, as consensus suggests,

and counter a semiconductor-sector outlook

clouded by weaker-than-anticipated

smartphone and PC demand, along with

stagnant inventory-reduction progress.